[Cigarette taxes and demand in Colombia]. / Impuestos y demanda de cigarrillos en Colombia.

OBJECTIVE: Estimate price and income elasticities of aggregate demand for cigarettes in Colombia, by controlling for structural market changes since the late 1990s, to identify policy opportunities for taxes that could improve public health and increase tax revenues. METHODS: Measurement of aggregate demand for cigarettes using gross income reported on value-added tax returns submitted to Colombia's National Tax and Customs Office (DIAN is the acronym in Spanish) by the tobacco product manufacturing industry, subtracting exports. A quarterly time series was obtained for the period 1994-2014. The econometric estimation using two-stage least squares controls for price endogeneity and uses a set of dummy variables to control for structural changes in the market and in its regulation. RESULTS: Demand is, from a statistical standpoint, sensitive to price and to income. Price elasticity of demand is -0.78 and income elasticity is 0.61. CONCLUSIONS: Inelastic demand implies that it is possible, through cigarette excise taxes, to meet public health targets and increase revenues simultaneously. The results also suggest that the considerable increase in household income in Colombia in the first decade of the 21st century increased purchasing power, which, lacking an accompanying tax increase, promoted cigarette consumption, with negative effects on public health, and wasted an opportunity to increase tax revenues.

Impuestos y demanda de cigarrillos en Colombia / Cigarette taxes and demand in Colombia

RESUMEN Objetivo Estimar elasticidades precio e ingreso de la demanda agregada de cigarrillos para Colombia mediante el control de cambios estructurales en el mercado desde finales de los años 90, para identificar espacios de política de impuestos que mejoren la salud pública y aumenten los recaudos fiscales. Métodos La medición de la demanda agregada de cigarrillos utiliza los ingresos brutos reportados en la declaración del impuesto al valor agregado (IVA) a la Dirección de Impuestos y Aduanas Nacionales de Colombia (DIAN) por la industria de fabricación de productos de tabaco, con descuento de las exportaciones. Se obtuvo una serie de tiempo trimestral para el período 1994–2014. La estimación econométrica por mínimos cuadrados en dos etapas (2SLS) controla por la endogeneidad del precio y utiliza un conjunto de variables dummy para controlar por cambios estructurales en el mercado y en su regulación. Resultados La demanda es, desde el punto de vista estadístico, sensible al precio y al ingreso. La elasticidad precio de la demanda es -0,78 y la elasticidad ingreso es 0,61. Conclusiones La demanda inelástica implica que es posible, a través de impuestos al consumo de cigarrillo, alcanzar metas de salud pública y aumentar el recaudo de manera simultánea. Los resultados también sugieren que el aumento considerable del ingreso de los hogares de Colombia en la primera década del siglo xxi generó aumento del poder de compra. Este, al no ir acompañado de un aumento en el impuesto, impulsó el consumo de cigarrillo, con efectos negativos en salud pública, y se desperdició una oportunidad para aumentar el recaudo fiscal.

ABSTRACT Objective Estimate price and income elasticities of aggregate demand for cigarettes in Colombia, by controlling for structural market changes since the late 1990s, to identify policy opportunities for taxes that could improve public health and increase tax revenues. Methods Measurement of aggregate demand for cigarettes using gross income reported on value-added tax returns submitted to Colombia’s National Tax and Customs Office (DIAN is the acronym in Spanish) by the tobacco product manufacturing industry, subtracting exports. A quarterly time series was obtained for the period 1994-2014. The econometric estimation using two-stage least squares controls for price endogeneity and uses a set of dummy variables to control for structural changes in the market and in its regulation. Results Demand is, from a statistical standpoint, sensitive to price and to income. Price elasticity of demand is –0.78 and income elasticity is 0.61. Conclusions Inelastic demand implies that it is possible, through cigarette excise taxes, to meet public health targets and increase revenues simultaneously. The results also suggest that the considerable increase in household income in Colombia in the first decade of the 21st century increased purchasing power, which, lacking an accompanying tax increase, promoted cigarette consumption, with negative effects on public health, and wasted an opportunity to increase tax revenues.

Impuestos y demanda de cigarrillos en Colombia / Cigarette taxes and demand in Colombia

Objetivo. Estimar elasticidades precio e ingreso de la demanda agregada de cigarrillos para Colombia mediante el control de cambios estructurales en el mercado desde finales de los años 90, para identificar espacios de política de impuestos que mejoren la salud pública y aumenten los recaudos fiscales. Métodos. La medición de la demanda agregada de cigarrillos utiliza los ingresos brutos reportados en la declaración del impuesto al valor agregado (IVA) a la Dirección de Impuestos y Aduanas Nacionales de Colombia (DIAN) por la industria de fabricación de productos de tabaco, con descuento de las exportaciones. Se obtuvo una serie de tiempo trimestral para el período 1994–2014. La estimación econométrica por mínimos cuadrados en dos etapas (2SLS) controla por la endogeneidad del precio y utiliza un conjunto de variables dummy para controlar por cambios estructurales en el mercado y en su regulación. Resultados. La demanda es, desde el punto de vista estadístico, sensible al precio y al ingreso. La elasticidad precio de la demanda es -0,78 y la elasticidad ingreso es 0,61. Conclusiones. La demanda inelástica implica que es posible, a través de impuestos al consumo de cigarrillo, alcanzar metas de salud pública y aumentar el recaudo de manera simultánea. Los resultados también sugieren que el aumento considerable del ingreso de los hogares de Colombia en la primera década del siglo xxi generó aumento del poder de compra. Este, al no ir acompañado de un aumento en el impuesto, impulsó el consumo de cigarrillo, con efectos negativos en salud pública, y se desperdició una oportunidad para aumentar el recaudo fiscal.

Objective. Estimate price and income elasticities of aggregate demand for cigarettes in Colombia, by controlling for structural market changes since the late 1990s, to identify policy opportunities for taxes that could improve public health and increase tax revenues. Methods. Measurement of aggregate demand for cigarettes using gross income reported on value-added tax returns submitted to Colombia’s National Tax and Customs Office (DIAN is the acronym in Spanish) by the tobacco product manufacturing industry, subtracting exports. A quarterly time series was obtained for the period 1994-2014. The econometric estimation using two-stage least squares controls for price endogeneity and uses a set of dummy variables to control for structural changes in the market and in its regulation. Results. Demand is, from a statistical standpoint, sensitive to price and to income. Price elasticity of demand is –0.78 and income elasticity is 0.61. Conclusions. Inelastic demand implies that it is possible, through cigarette excise taxes, to meet public health targets and increase revenues simultaneously. The results also suggest that the considerable increase in household income in Colombia in the first decade of the 21st century increased purchasing power, which, lacking an accompanying tax increase, promoted cigarette consumption, with negative effects on public health, and wasted an opportunity to increase tax revenues.